Rules over feelings.
Boring is the goal.
MPD is Forecast Capital Management’s lineup of rules-based model portfolios — a written process for how money is allocated, rebalanced, and defended, built for owners and executives whose financial lives are already complicated enough.
Most portfolios are either frozen or improvised.
A static 60/40 asks you to sit through every regime the same way. Trading on headlines asks you to be right about the news. Neither was designed for someone whose business, equity, and liquidity already carry real risk.
“The question isn’t what the market will do. It’s what the plan does when it happens.”
Model portfolio design, written down.
MPD combines a passive strategic core with rules-based tactical sleeves, organized into four risk bands. Each sleeve has a job, a set of inputs, and limits. The goal is a portfolio you can understand — and a process you can hold us to.
A core that doesn’t guess
Diversified, low-cost exposures rebalanced on a schedule or when drift bands are breached. No timing signals.
Tactics with guardrails
Tactical sleeves respond to independent research signals, with confirmation rules designed to reduce whipsaw.
Risk you choose on purpose
Four risk bands set the strategic posture. Sleeve weights are design targets for each band, not forecasts.
Same discipline. Sized to the account.
The difference between MPD+ and MPD is mechanical, not philosophical: smaller accounts can’t hold as many positions cleanly, so they use fewer sleeves.
MPD+
- Up to five sleeves: Strategic Leaders, TAAP, Equity Rotation, Tactical Fixed Income, Global Macro
- Four risk bands, from Aggressive Growth to Income & Growth
- Minimum supports whole-share position sizing with a ~2% position floor
- Limited leverage may be permitted in higher-risk bands under defined rules
MPD
- Three sleeves: Strategic Core, unlevered TAAP, Global Macro
- Same four risk bands and the same weekly process
- Equity Rotation and Tactical Fixed Income omitted — too many positions to size cleanly at this account size
- No leverage
Why the minimums? Accounts at Charles Schwab hold whole shares, and we keep a floor of roughly 2% per position. Below $150,000, a five-sleeve design would force positions too small to implement as intended.
Pick the posture. The rules handle the rest.
Each band has a strategic reference mix of equity to fixed income. Tactical sleeves can move within their own limits, so an account’s actual mix will vary over time.
Aggressive Growth
Long horizon, high tolerance for drawdowns. Equity-led, with tactical and alternatives sleeves alongside.
Growth
Growth-oriented with a larger strategic anchor. For investors who want equity participation with more ballast.
Growth & Income
Balanced posture. Adds a rules-based bond sleeve so fixed income can adapt too.
Income & Growth
Fixed-income-led, with modest equity participation. Emphasis on stability and income.
| Band | Strategic | TAAP | Rotation | Tact. FI | Global Macro |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aggressive Growth | 25% | 35% | 20% | — | 20% |
| Growth | 30% | 30% | 20% | — | 20% |
| Growth & Income | 30% | 20% | 15% | 15% | 20% |
| Income & Growth | 35% | 20% | — | 25% | 20% |
| Band | Strategic Core | TAAP | Global Macro |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aggressive Growth | 50% | 30% | 20% |
| Growth | 55% | 25% | 20% |
| Growth & Income | 60% | 20% | 20% |
| Income & Growth | 65% | 15% | 20% |
Sleeve weights are design targets used to construct each model. They are not holdings, not performance, and not a recommendation. Actual allocations vary with rebalancing, tactical signals, and client customization.
Every sleeve has one job.
MPD+ uses up to five sleeves; MPD uses three. Each is defined by what it holds, what moves it, and where it’s used.
Strategic Leaders
Global equities, a core bond allocation, and a strategic gold position. Rebalanced quarterly or when drift bands are breached. No timing signals — this is the part of the portfolio that doesn’t try to be clever.
TAAP
Broad US large-cap equity exposure that can shift toward short-term Treasury bills when signals turn defensive. Designed to adjust equity risk, not to pick stocks.
Equity Rotation
Ranks sector, factor, and country ETFs using rules-based signals and holds the leaders. Positions change when the rankings do — not when the headlines do.
Tactical Fixed Income
Chooses among duration, credit, inflation protection, and cash based on rules — so the bond side of the portfolio isn’t on autopilot either.
Global Macro
Commodities, precious metals, currencies, digital assets within caps, and hedges. Sized with a regime-by-signal discipline grid. Discretionary — but only within hard rules and theme caps.
Same checklist, every week.
Discipline is mostly repetition. The tactical sleeves follow the same sequence each week, whether markets are calm or not.
Signal check
Independent research signals are reviewed for each tactical sleeve.
Confirmation
A change has to clear confirmation rules before it acts — designed to reduce whipsaw from one noisy week.
Holdings
Only confirmed changes move positions, within each sleeve’s limits and the model’s design targets.
Market Health
A separate panel monitors credit spreads, volatility structure, breadth, and positioning. It informs our judgment; it is not wired into the weights.
Built for people with complicated money.
MPD was designed with business owners and executives in mind — people who already carry concentrated risk and want the rest of their capital run by rules.
You want a process you can hold us to
- You own or run a business — roughly $5M to $50M in revenue — or hold concentrated equity as an executive
- You want a process you can read, question, and hold an adviser to
- You value risk management and consistency of process over excitement
- You want a fiduciary who coordinates with your CPA and attorney
You’re looking for something else
- You’re looking for stock tips or short-term trading
- You want someone to predict the market
- You can’t tolerate the possibility of losses — every strategy here can lose money
- You’d rather override the rules when headlines get loud
Straight answers.
Is this personalized advice?
Not on its own. This page describes model frameworks. Before any account is managed, we go through a planning conversation to understand your goals, risk tolerance, and circumstances, and recommend a track and risk band — or something else entirely — based on that.
Where is my money held?
Client assets are held in your name at Charles Schwab, an independent custodian. Forecast Capital Management manages the account under a limited trading authorization; we do not take custody of client funds.
Can I customize a model?
Yes, within reason. Models are frameworks, not fixed products. Restrictions, legacy positions, tax considerations, and cash needs can be accommodated, which means an actual account can differ from the model.
What’s the minimum?
MPD+ starts at $150,000. MPD serves accounts from $25,000 to $150,000 with a simplified three-sleeve design. The minimums exist so positions can be held in whole shares with a meaningful floor.
How is this different from a target-date fund?
A target-date fund follows a fixed glide path based on a single date. MPD starts from a risk band you choose and includes tactical sleeves that can adjust within defined rules. That flexibility also means MPD will behave differently from a static allocation.
How are the models evaluated?
Aggressive Growth and Growth are evaluated against a broad US equity benchmark, with stock/bond blends as secondary context. Benchmarks are reference points for review, not targets or promises.
Start with a conversation, not a commitment.
Twenty minutes to see whether MPD fits your situation. Or start smaller — the Friday 5 is a short weekly note on markets, process, and planning.
Forecast Capital Management LLC is a registered investment adviser. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. This page is educational and does not constitute individualized investment advice. Investing involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Model portfolios are illustrative frameworks that may be customized; actual client accounts can differ.
Sleeve weights and risk-band reference mixes shown are model design targets, not current holdings or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Tactical strategies may underperform static allocations and can lose money. Leveraged ETFs, where permitted, increase volatility and the potential for loss. Charles Schwab & Co., Inc. is an independent custodian and is not affiliated with Forecast Capital Management LLC. For more information, including fees and conflicts of interest, see our Form ADV Part 2A.